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January 12, 2022

Are Government Forecasts Too Optimistic?

The tendency for the government economic outlook to be rosier than those announced by the Bank of Japan and private forecasters has grown stronger since 2013, when Abenomics was launched.

In an article in the January/February 2022 issue of Japan Spotlight, Research Director Nobuo Iizuka compares the various projections over the past several years and notes that the trend is likely to continue for the outlook in 2022.

He points out, though, that CPI forecasts by the government are for all items, while the BOJ and private-sector projections exclude fresh foods.

“Comparing the Japanese Economic Outlooks of the Government, Bank of Japan & Private Sector,” Japan Spotlight
https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/241st_Economic_Indicators.pdf

Profile of Research Director Nobuo Iizuka
https://www.tkfd.or.jp/en/experts/detail.php?id=381

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