In an article in the May/June 2022 issue of Japan Spotlight, Research Director Nobuo Iizuka analyzes recent trends in the consumer price index and notes that inflation could reach 2%—the longtime goal of the Bank of Japan—by the end of 2022.

The main factor pushing down prices over the past year, Iizuka says, had been the discount payment plans put forward by major mobile phone carriers, without which the rise in consumer prices may already be around 2%.

The recent sharp rises in energy prices following the outbreak of war in Ukraine could linger, though, with Russia, which accounts for 10% of global crude oil production, growing increasingly isolated from the global economy. This he notes , could well lead to stagflation, under which prices continue to rise under a recession.

In the same issue of Japan Spotlight, Senior Fellow Nariyasu Yamasawa—a member of the research team at the Tokyo Foundation headed by Iizuka—describes how GDP statistics were improved to promote evidence-based policymaking, citing the establishment of the Economic Conditions Survey as a major achievement.

“Price Trends in Japan Looking Similar to 2008,” Japan Spotlight
https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/243rd_Economic_Indicators.pdf

“Current Status & Future of Statistical Reform – Utilization of Real-Time Data & Alternative Data,” Japan Spotlight
https://www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/243rd_Cover_Story_09.pdf

Profile of Research Director Nobuo Iizuka
https://www.tkfd.or.jp/en/experts/detail.php?id=381

Profile of Senior Fellow Nariyasu Yamasawa
https://www.tkfd.or.jp/en/experts/detail.php?id=542